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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 07/10 11:43
Packers Offer Bids, but Feedlots Hold Out
Bids are currently on the table in the South at $223 to $227 in the South
but still no cattle have traded.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The feeder cattle complex is again trading higher as traders take the USDA's
announcement that the border is again closed to Mexican imports as a bullish
note. Still no cash cattle trade has developed but bids are on the table in the
South. July corn is down 4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $2.50.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 237.95 points and the NASDAQ is down
0.79 points.
The biggest news hitting the livestock front this morning is that late
Wednesday afternoon (7/9/2025) the USDA issued a new statement that because a
new case of New World screwworm has been round in Ixhuatlan de Madero, Veracruz
in Mexico (which is only 370 miles South of the U.S./Mexico border) the border
between the U.S and Mexico is again shut down to cattle, bison and equine
imports from Mexico. The official USDA statement can be assessed here:
https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/news/press-releases/2025/07/09/secretary-rollins
-takes-decisive-action-and-shuts-down-us-southern-border-ports-livestock-trade-d
ue?fbclid=IwQ0xDSwLcDglleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHvAksBKQSHN_A4eVaZ_ZyUGaaiHF_hzcB_SFAFTC
7iePmsDQz2W22XsojTtr_aem_LbFfgDq6XE-0dfQeZgG-Gg
Thursday's export report shared that net sales of 11,600 mt for 2025 were up
1% from the previous week but down 12% from the prior 4-week average. The three
largest buyers were Japan (4,000 mt), South Korea (3,800 mt) and Mexico (1,100
mt). Pork net sales of 24,300 mt for 2025 were down 11% from the previous week
and 17% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were China
(8,800 mt), Mexico (7,300 mt) and Japan (4,200 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is trading mixed into Thursday's noon hour, seeming
to again hold its breath until there's an understanding of the direction fed
cash cattle prices are going to trade this week. August live cattle are down
$0.62 at $219.15, October live cattle are down $0.20 at $217.20 and December
live cattle are up $0.12 at $217.42. A few bids are on the table at mostly $223
in the South, but a regional packer is currently bidding up to $227. But with
asking prices firm in the South at $228 to $230, still no cattle have traded
yet. And the North remains incredibly quiet with no bids or asking prices
having been posted just yet. Upon seeing that boxed beef prices are lower again
today, I think it's safe to say that the seasonal downward trend of the third
quarter for boxed beef prices has been set into motion.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.78 ($384.67) and select down
$1.51 ($371.76) with a movement of 42 loads (23.85 loads of choice, 6.48 loads
of select, 7.05 loads of trim and 4.35 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the USDA's updated announcement (see above in general comments) that
the US border is again closed to Mexican imports, the feeder cattle complex has
again gained another leg up and traders are continuing to support its higher
trend. August feeders are up $1.40 at $321.87, September feeders are up $1.62
at $321.65 and October feeders are up $1.50 at $319.52. We know that domestic
supplies are tight, and buyer demand remains red hot, which is why traders
remain confident in continuing to push the contracts higher.
LEAN HOGS:
Pork cutout values may be higher, but the slight downturn of exports seems
to be negatively weighing on trader's minds as the contracts are trading fully
lower into Thursday's noon hour. August lean hogs are down $1.00 at $106.22,
October lean hogs are down $1.12 at $92.65 and December lean hogs are down
$1.20 at $84.50. The carcass price was realistically able to print higher this
morning because of the heavy lifting done by the belly which jumped $4.51
higher, and the ham which jumped $4.24.
Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.94 with
a weighted average price of $112.75, ranging from $100.00 to $114.00 on 4,892
head and a five-day rolling average of $112.26. Pork cutouts total 147.54 loads
with 131.10 loads of pork cuts and 16.44 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up
$1.42, $113.48.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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