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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/17 10:56

   Soybean Futures Higher at Midday; Corn Mixed; Wheat Lower

   Corn futures are narrowly mixed at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are 4 
to 13 cents higher; wheat futures are 15 to 23 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are narrowly mixed at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are 4 
to 13 cents higher; wheat futures are 15 to 23 cents lower. The U.S. stock 
market is weaker with the DOW down 235 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 30 
points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mostly higher 
with crude up .50. Livestock trade is firmer with cattle leading. Precious 
metals are weaker with gold $13.50 lower.

CORN:

   Corn futures are narrowly mixed with firmer spread action with trade working 
to consolidate in the middle of the range after the early week sell-off and 
early gains fading. Short-term forecasts have the center of the Corn Belt drier 
with milder temperatures short term. Ethanol margins will continue to be 
limited by driving demand and seasonal slowdowns with unleaded futures finding 
support in recent days. The weekly ethanol report showed production down by 
39,000 barrels per day (bpd), with stocks rising by 190,000 barrels. Basis will 
be watched to see how much further strength fades, especially with the board 
rally and harvest starts in the South with mixed to lower yields and aflatoxin 
concerns so far. On the September chart, support is the 20-day moving average 
at $6.06 and the upper Bollinger Band is the next round up at $6.42. 

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 4 to 13 cents higher at midday with firmer spread trade 
as drier weather returns short term for much of the belt, with trade working to 
consolidate at nearby support levels with early gains fading a bit. Meal is 
flat to $1.00 higher, and oil is 40 to 50 points lower. Biodiesel margins 
remain positive but narrowing in recent days with overall crush margins good. 
South America is on post-harvest footing for shipping with their advantage to 
persist until September. The bulk of the U.S. is heading into the start of 
pod-fill season with less-stressful weather this week, temperature-wise. Basis 
has been more mixed as we head toward harvest. On the September soybean chart 
support is the 20-day moving average at $14.45, which we are well above, while 
November has faded through the 20-day moving average at $14.00, with the Upper 
Bollinger Band at $15.65, which we have faded from.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are 15 to 23 cents lower at midday with KC turning from 
leading trade higher overnight to leading lower with better rains expected and 
near-term demand questions remaining as Black Sea shipping moves forward. 
Plains weather looks for better short-term moisture with deficits needing to be 
eased ahead of planting, while spring wheat harvest should expand significantly 
this week. The dollar is rebounding a bit with mixed inflation ideas. Egypt is 
making some purchases without tenders while MATIF values fade further in low 
volume. The KC September chart has support at the 20-day moving average at 
$8.63, which we broke below this morning, with the Lower Bollinger band at 
$8.23 the next round down.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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